Preparing for your draft: Things to know

With fantasy football coming fast managers need to begin preparing their draft strategy! This article should give new owners an idea of how to start preparing and give returning experts extra knowledge or at least just ideas to get their engines running.

I have seen and experienced success with many different combinations of which positions to take when. Different varieties works in a large part due to the uniqueness of each draft; no two drafts will play out the same. Success can happen in many different forms and it all depends on who is in your league and those members different strategies. It is critical to have a plan ready so you do not make poor decisions come the big draft day, but the plan ultimately must be flexible. Everything you want to happen will not happen and everything you think may happen will not. Knowing this is to your advantage. If you think it will work out exactly like your mock drafts or go in the order of the player rankings you will be surprised during the draft and this will result in bad decisions. Have a plan and have a back-up plan, that is the plan!

One of the most important things I have learned over the past few years is that you should always get the guy you want. When you identify a player as a "gem" in other words a player who you think will overproduce, you must grab him early to ensure that you don't miss on him. In order to find a gem, you must look at rankings and mock drafts. After you find out where the "experts" rank your gem then you will have an idea of where he should be drafted in your draft. Take him before that round! An example of this is two years ago I had Hakeem Nicks as my biggest gem and took him in the 6th round, he was being drafted in mock drafts at around round 8, but I knew I didn't want to miss on him. It paid off. Last year my gems were Jimmy Graham, Tim Hightower and Reggie Bush. I missed on Graham in one of my leagues, because I thought he would last past round 6 but he did not. Another manager had him as a gem and knew that the gap was closing, it worked out well for him as he won the title. In other words, a gem is a guy that you feel confident will perform better than the experts think. You need to be willing to overdraft these players, but be smart about it. I wouldn't take Jimmy Graham in round 2, but if I had taken him in round 5 I still would have been happy even though it would have been a huge overdraft.

Some readers may think a gem and a sleeper are the same thing, but I believe a sleeper is a little more under the radar while a gem is more well-known. Sleepers are also very important in the draft and should be overdrafted if you want to make sure you get them. Three years ago Nicks was my sleeper and I took him in the last round. Gems often must be overdrated, while sleepers can be drafted late because many other managers don't have them on the radar. It seems amusing to me when I see sleeper lists in "experts" articles and they list guys that everyone knows about. For example, last year you could search sleeper lists and find the same 10 names in every column. This sounds more like a gem to me, and means that a ton of people have the same idea that this player will overproduce. Sleepers are players that are not expected to have much of a fantasy impact by the vast majority. Regardless of what you call them gem or sleeper, I will be referring to them as gems and sleepers in my articles which are similar but not the same.

After you have identified your gems and sleepers you must decide which of these players are absolutely must have and which are desired but only if you can get them without overdrafting then you are ready to prepare your draft plan. Through mock drafts and researching the rankings your opponents will be looking at, you can find out when these players are likely to be drafted. Then you can find out when you will need to take them in order to get them on your team. Write that down and pretend that you have drafted them in that slot. Now figure out which positions and rounds you have used and see what rounds you have left available and which positions you need. This usually helps narrow down which positions to draft and when, because just choosing a RB in round 1 even though you have plenty of late gems and sleepers at RB is not smart. It all depends on what position your gems and sleepers are and how much depth there is at each position.

Due to the different positions you identify it is hard for me to suggest an exact layout for draft strategy as far as positions are concerned, but I will just give you some general information on my preferences and hopefully you can handle the rest. The big question is what to do with your first round pick. Over the past past few years it has been a no-brainer to grab a elite RB and go from there, but last year WR's such as Andre Johnson and Megatron and QB's like Vick and Rodgers were possibilities. Personally I think it depends on availability and draft position. Although many will argue that Rodgers should go #1 overall, I will not be taking a QB with my 1st round pick. I see a lot of depth at QB this year and already have some gems/sleepers in mind with further research to come to either confirm or deny that they are in fact gems or sleepers. I can make an argument to take a WR with certain late first round picks depending on who is available and obviously RB is a possibility. I like having balance within the first few rounds and think it is necessary to grab a QB between rounds 2-5 and a TE between rounds 5-8. While there is still plenty of room to play with your picks between those rounds, I feel if I grab those positions within those rounds they will be solid starters. This means I will not have to draft backups until the later rounds. If you end up taking a starting QB in the 8th round, you better be confident that he is a sleeper or grab a backup QB in the next couple rounds. Last year I stacked RBs and WRs and didn't even draft a backup QB or TE. I had Brees and Finley and felt comfortable with them. Brees did great and I picked up a decent QB for his bye week, but Finley did worse than I expected. If you feel confident in a sleeper QB or TE this is the exception to taking them in the ranges I listed above. For example, if somehow you knew Newton would do great last year and drafted him as a late round sleeper, then taking a QB in the 8th-12th round would be fine knowing you can get Newton in the last couple rounds. The possibilities are endless for draft strategies and what positions to take and when, but I have a layout of my favorite.  An example what I see as the best draft setup by position is given:
Rd1) RB
Rd2) WR
Rd3)RB/WR
Rd4) QB
Rd5) WR/RB
Rd6) TE
Rd7) RB/WR
Rd8- RB/WR
Rd9- RB/WR
Rd10- QB
Rd11- D/ST
Rd12- RB/WR
Rd13- TE
Rd14- RB/WR
Rd15 K
Rd16- sleeper WR

Obviously this all depends on how deep the positions are each year, which players are available when you pick, and the needs of the other teams. (So if you pick 8th in a snake draft and the player who picks 10th, who will pick twice before you, needs a QB and you do as well and there is only 1 elite QB left in the 3rd round I would pass on a RB and take that QB.) RB/WR just means I could care less which position of those 2 that I take as long as I continue to keep balance and take players that I want on my roster. The last round I always like to have fun and take a sleeper WR, you could take a sleeper of any position, but typically the last round picks are guys you end up dropping for your first (of many) waiver wire transactions so you might as well have fun with it. I took Hakeem Nicks his rookie year i the last round, last year I took a guy who ended up not even playing. It doesn't always pan out, but it's the easiest pick to feel comfortable taking a risk on that could be a huge reward if you catch a diamond in the rough.

Risk and Reward are two words you need to be familiar with when going into your draft. High risk picks could result in high reward, but make sure you are willing to take that risk. Looking at last years draft, some high risk players that were taken in the first round were Jamaal Charles, CJ, Mike Vick, Lesean McCoy, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. All of these guys are players you could make an argument that they could catch fire and break some records while you were laughing all the way to the bank. Out of that list I would say McCoy and Foster were high reward and the rest left owners hurting. Low Risk players that seem to have less possibility for catching fire, but you could feel comfortable taking were guys like AP, Ray Rice and MJD. Out of these three owners were all happy except when AP got injured late. I think taking risks is necessary, but have balance in your risk taking just like with your WRs/RBs. So if you take a risk in round 1, go ahead and try to find some lower risk players for rounds 2-3. If you take some low risk players in rounds 1-2, go ahead and take some high risk high reward players later. If you don't take any risks you won't win EVER, and if you take all risks you won't win EVER. Find balance with your risks and do your research!

This article was mainly just to get fantasy owners ready for the season and to begin making a draft strategy. Although I didn't provide you with any of my gems or sleepers in my first article, believe me there will be more to come. I will be putting up articles as often as I can and would love to hear any questions you have. Good luck studying and use your time wisely, because the NFL season will be underway before you know it!!!