Analyzing other Factors when drafting your Team

Often times, fantasy football managers pick purely based on how good they think a player is. That is what it should boil down to considering the game is all about the player’s stats, but one must realize that other factors will play a major role. These factors include the following: transactions, teammates, coaches, and a wide variety of other aspects including schedules, attitudes, rapport and conflict. I will break down how these factors play a role in what to expect from your players.

Transactions are one of the biggest factors I look at when trying to predict the future. Go through each team’s 2012 NFL draft class and their free agency pick-ups as well as players they lost in free agency. With only this information, you should be able to get a few ideas as to what the team saw as their weakness, which direction they want the team to go in and how they will use their roster to put together a strategy. Looking at the Colts’ draft class anyone can see that they felt that help in the passing game was their primary concern as they drafted Luck, a pair of tight ends and a receiver with their first four picks. With the rest of their picks they grabbed another receiver as well as a backup QB to express that the area was in a very important need for improvement. Only four of the ten picks were other positions and one was an OT which also goes into improving the passing game. Indy is not going to make a run at the Super Bowl this year, but looking at the youth they just brought in, the years to come will be bright. This season will have a major increase in fantasy production and looking to the passing game is a good idea. Another team to showcase is the fellow AFC South Texans. What they have done is quite simple, continue to add depth to their stout defensive front, bring in offensive linemen to replace key components to one of the best lines in the league that were lost to free agency and bring in a pair of receivers to attempt to fill the void opposite Andre Johnson. From a fantasy perspective, you can see that their defensive is going to put up big numbers again as they continue to bring in more playermakers, with the only concern being their secondary particularly at the safety position. The offensive line will do well, but getting on the same page may take some time, especially with their running scheme. The line has great pass-blocking ability and bringing in other threats at WR should make Schaub as well as his targets more valuable this season. Another team that has improved their offense is the Bucs. They have added Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark, Doug Martin, Michael Smith and some key defenders. The Bucs had a sad showing last season after a 2010 season that made them appear as contenders for the NFC South. I see them bouncing back this year and having some fantasy studs that could turn out to be steals for your draft. Freeman is going to put up some numbers and should fall to the later rounds after his disappointing season last year. Williams and Benn didn't do great last year, but showed that they are both playmakers when given the chance. Blount was incredibly inconsistent and mainly disappointing; the new coaching staff isn't so hot on him either so look for Martin to steal the starting role and make an instant impact, as well as Smith being a possible flex or cuff if they try to get him involved in 3rd downs as well as splitting him out at WR. VJax and Freeman sounds like a match made in heaven. One of the best deep ball catcher teams up with one of the best deep ball throwing arms in what could be a dynamic duo. If you don't feel confident in this pair, taking a Williams, Clark or Benn in the later rounds could pay off as Jackson should stretch the field and Williams matches up well as a #2 WR.

Each player will do all they can to perform well, but if their teammates are not carrying out their responsibilities, that player will have a hard time being successful. Obviously the surrounding cast will never be perfect and players will miss blocks or forget assignments, but looking at skill and depth of each team can help predict a player’s performance. An example of this is looking at Reggie Wayne last year. If you look at him on a personal basis he is still a great receiver, but with that surrounding cast it was hard for him to produce to anywhere close to his full capability. On the other hand if you take a look at Jordy Nelson you will see that the Packers surrounding cast helped open up the field for Nelson in the slot and make him a real threat on the field and made him a fantasy starter for the majority of the season. A team that has made a lot of changes this off-season that should impact fantasy football drastically is the 49ers. They had a great team last year with arguably the best defense in the league, but lacked enough weapons offensively. They feel the problem has been fixed by bringing in three WRs (Moss, Manningham and Jenkins) and a pair of RBs (Jacobs and LaMichael). The backfield is now crowded with four players that should get touches, instead of what used to be Gore's undisputed position a couple years back. With Vernon Davis and the three added receivers Crabtree is bound to improve his numbers this season, but ultimately out of the crowd getting your hands on Davis is the best idea and letting your peers overdraft Crabtree and Manningham should work out fine. Taking a shot late on Jenkins or Moss late isn't a terrible idea, but with a team like San Fran who knows how to pound the ball I'm not confident that they will produce consistently this season. Looking to the backfield, Jacobs should be no more than a short yardage back and can be drafted late for that role. Gore is still the crème of the crop and should get a significant amount of carries, making him a solid RB2, but cuffing Hunter is essential if you go that route. Hunter to me is going to be taking the primary duties within the next two years and I will be taking him in the mid to late rounds as a gem. LaMichael should be drafted only by Oregon fans this year.

Coaches are in control of the players and you must pay attention to who is making the calls. Different coaches have different styles and looking at their history and reading or listening to press conferences can give you some important tells. Fantasy managers can then categorize coaches and use their patterns to predict what they will do in the future. A few examples of coaching styles are seen with Sean Payton and the Saints who like to use different packages and use multiple backs and receiver packages while the Jags under Del Rio stick to MJD and the same packages for the majority of their play calls. Other than packages, you can look at which coaches are hard-nosed run the ball kind of guys who think that the ground pound will wear the opponent down and open up the passing game. This can be compared to coaches who believe the pass can open up the run and spread out the defense like McCarthy and the Pack. Coaching trends can be seen in many fashions, and another way of looking at these routines is to see how coaches call plays in certain situations. Last year the Eagles were using the shuffle pass in the red zone and I remember calling that play before it happened a couple times, because I had seen it work and Andy Reid obviously knew it was working. Newton was getting the call in goal line situations for the Panthers last year and it turned into a habit to see him getting one yard TDs instead of Williams or Stewert. Play calling is extremely important to pay attention to and can help players get an idea of how the coaches will call in the future. Field goals are often overlooked, but are also very important. Some coaches like Todd Haley are the risk taker type who likes to go for it on 4th and short instead of taking the field goal. Other coaches will take the points almost every time unless the game depends on them going for it. Having this information will not only help you when drafting a kicker, but when taking the offensive players who may or may not get an extra shot at going for TDs.

There are plenty of other things you can look at when making decisions on whom to draft and who to pass on and a few I suggest you look into include schedules, attitudes, rapport and conflict. Schedules can be looked into, but at the same time many things will change and teams will appear as contenders or drop off. Looking at the playoff schedules is a good idea as well as early season schedules. The early season schedules that are easier can be used to get an early producer and then trading that player before they reach the better defenses. Some divisions are weaker than others obviously while some are stacked. The NFC East is a strong division, but I actually think they have a generally weak secondary as a division and WRs in this division are dominant. A player’s attitude is very important and looking at contracts plays a major role in this. Look at DeSean Jackson last year, he had a very poor attitude and his poor play on the field followed. Players who are not getting along with their coaches or teammates are trouble and will not do very well, so always consider that. Rapport is something that can be overlooked, but is very important. Look at Jermichael Finley last year, he had no rapport with Rodgers but is a freak of nature athletically. He had a terrible year. In New Orleans, Brees and Jimmy Graham showed great rapport and consistently proved to be one of the best QB to TE duos in the league while making fantasy owners very happy.  They knew what to expect from each other so well and you could tell that they practiced their timing over and over. Brady usually has rapport with all his receivers, but Ocho Cinco was the exception last year and now he is gone! Lastly, conflict is something you can look at to help picking out your players. Players getting in trouble with arrests, DUI's drug charges and many other problems that often happen can be thought of as to be trouble makers who will not perform. Typically I like to let everyone else get scared about these conflicts and take chances on these guys if they have talent and will actually get to play in most of their games. Last year I took Cedric Benson very late and he did me well for most of the season. This year let everyone worry about AP with his arrest and knee, but I will definitely draft him if he is around!

You can look at last year’s stats and try to predict how a player will perform this year, but make sure you take a look at some other factors. I've mentioned what I feel are the most important aspects of evaluating how a player will perform differently from the year before. These factors are transactions, coaches, teammates, schedules, attitudes, rapport and conflict. If you spend time evaluating your players and each of these factors, you should be able to better see the unforeseen and draft players that are going to over perform. Sleepers and gems are found by looking at a player’s surroundings so start researching and good luck! Next week I will be starting a Sleeper, Gem, Bust, Overdrafted list so stay tuned.

Preparing for your draft: Things to know

With fantasy football coming fast managers need to begin preparing their draft strategy! This article should give new owners an idea of how to start preparing and give returning experts extra knowledge or at least just ideas to get their engines running.

I have seen and experienced success with many different combinations of which positions to take when. Different varieties works in a large part due to the uniqueness of each draft; no two drafts will play out the same. Success can happen in many different forms and it all depends on who is in your league and those members different strategies. It is critical to have a plan ready so you do not make poor decisions come the big draft day, but the plan ultimately must be flexible. Everything you want to happen will not happen and everything you think may happen will not. Knowing this is to your advantage. If you think it will work out exactly like your mock drafts or go in the order of the player rankings you will be surprised during the draft and this will result in bad decisions. Have a plan and have a back-up plan, that is the plan!

One of the most important things I have learned over the past few years is that you should always get the guy you want. When you identify a player as a "gem" in other words a player who you think will overproduce, you must grab him early to ensure that you don't miss on him. In order to find a gem, you must look at rankings and mock drafts. After you find out where the "experts" rank your gem then you will have an idea of where he should be drafted in your draft. Take him before that round! An example of this is two years ago I had Hakeem Nicks as my biggest gem and took him in the 6th round, he was being drafted in mock drafts at around round 8, but I knew I didn't want to miss on him. It paid off. Last year my gems were Jimmy Graham, Tim Hightower and Reggie Bush. I missed on Graham in one of my leagues, because I thought he would last past round 6 but he did not. Another manager had him as a gem and knew that the gap was closing, it worked out well for him as he won the title. In other words, a gem is a guy that you feel confident will perform better than the experts think. You need to be willing to overdraft these players, but be smart about it. I wouldn't take Jimmy Graham in round 2, but if I had taken him in round 5 I still would have been happy even though it would have been a huge overdraft.

Some readers may think a gem and a sleeper are the same thing, but I believe a sleeper is a little more under the radar while a gem is more well-known. Sleepers are also very important in the draft and should be overdrafted if you want to make sure you get them. Three years ago Nicks was my sleeper and I took him in the last round. Gems often must be overdrated, while sleepers can be drafted late because many other managers don't have them on the radar. It seems amusing to me when I see sleeper lists in "experts" articles and they list guys that everyone knows about. For example, last year you could search sleeper lists and find the same 10 names in every column. This sounds more like a gem to me, and means that a ton of people have the same idea that this player will overproduce. Sleepers are players that are not expected to have much of a fantasy impact by the vast majority. Regardless of what you call them gem or sleeper, I will be referring to them as gems and sleepers in my articles which are similar but not the same.

After you have identified your gems and sleepers you must decide which of these players are absolutely must have and which are desired but only if you can get them without overdrafting then you are ready to prepare your draft plan. Through mock drafts and researching the rankings your opponents will be looking at, you can find out when these players are likely to be drafted. Then you can find out when you will need to take them in order to get them on your team. Write that down and pretend that you have drafted them in that slot. Now figure out which positions and rounds you have used and see what rounds you have left available and which positions you need. This usually helps narrow down which positions to draft and when, because just choosing a RB in round 1 even though you have plenty of late gems and sleepers at RB is not smart. It all depends on what position your gems and sleepers are and how much depth there is at each position.

Due to the different positions you identify it is hard for me to suggest an exact layout for draft strategy as far as positions are concerned, but I will just give you some general information on my preferences and hopefully you can handle the rest. The big question is what to do with your first round pick. Over the past past few years it has been a no-brainer to grab a elite RB and go from there, but last year WR's such as Andre Johnson and Megatron and QB's like Vick and Rodgers were possibilities. Personally I think it depends on availability and draft position. Although many will argue that Rodgers should go #1 overall, I will not be taking a QB with my 1st round pick. I see a lot of depth at QB this year and already have some gems/sleepers in mind with further research to come to either confirm or deny that they are in fact gems or sleepers. I can make an argument to take a WR with certain late first round picks depending on who is available and obviously RB is a possibility. I like having balance within the first few rounds and think it is necessary to grab a QB between rounds 2-5 and a TE between rounds 5-8. While there is still plenty of room to play with your picks between those rounds, I feel if I grab those positions within those rounds they will be solid starters. This means I will not have to draft backups until the later rounds. If you end up taking a starting QB in the 8th round, you better be confident that he is a sleeper or grab a backup QB in the next couple rounds. Last year I stacked RBs and WRs and didn't even draft a backup QB or TE. I had Brees and Finley and felt comfortable with them. Brees did great and I picked up a decent QB for his bye week, but Finley did worse than I expected. If you feel confident in a sleeper QB or TE this is the exception to taking them in the ranges I listed above. For example, if somehow you knew Newton would do great last year and drafted him as a late round sleeper, then taking a QB in the 8th-12th round would be fine knowing you can get Newton in the last couple rounds. The possibilities are endless for draft strategies and what positions to take and when, but I have a layout of my favorite.  An example what I see as the best draft setup by position is given:
Rd1) RB
Rd2) WR
Rd3)RB/WR
Rd4) QB
Rd5) WR/RB
Rd6) TE
Rd7) RB/WR
Rd8- RB/WR
Rd9- RB/WR
Rd10- QB
Rd11- D/ST
Rd12- RB/WR
Rd13- TE
Rd14- RB/WR
Rd15 K
Rd16- sleeper WR

Obviously this all depends on how deep the positions are each year, which players are available when you pick, and the needs of the other teams. (So if you pick 8th in a snake draft and the player who picks 10th, who will pick twice before you, needs a QB and you do as well and there is only 1 elite QB left in the 3rd round I would pass on a RB and take that QB.) RB/WR just means I could care less which position of those 2 that I take as long as I continue to keep balance and take players that I want on my roster. The last round I always like to have fun and take a sleeper WR, you could take a sleeper of any position, but typically the last round picks are guys you end up dropping for your first (of many) waiver wire transactions so you might as well have fun with it. I took Hakeem Nicks his rookie year i the last round, last year I took a guy who ended up not even playing. It doesn't always pan out, but it's the easiest pick to feel comfortable taking a risk on that could be a huge reward if you catch a diamond in the rough.

Risk and Reward are two words you need to be familiar with when going into your draft. High risk picks could result in high reward, but make sure you are willing to take that risk. Looking at last years draft, some high risk players that were taken in the first round were Jamaal Charles, CJ, Mike Vick, Lesean McCoy, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. All of these guys are players you could make an argument that they could catch fire and break some records while you were laughing all the way to the bank. Out of that list I would say McCoy and Foster were high reward and the rest left owners hurting. Low Risk players that seem to have less possibility for catching fire, but you could feel comfortable taking were guys like AP, Ray Rice and MJD. Out of these three owners were all happy except when AP got injured late. I think taking risks is necessary, but have balance in your risk taking just like with your WRs/RBs. So if you take a risk in round 1, go ahead and try to find some lower risk players for rounds 2-3. If you take some low risk players in rounds 1-2, go ahead and take some high risk high reward players later. If you don't take any risks you won't win EVER, and if you take all risks you won't win EVER. Find balance with your risks and do your research!

This article was mainly just to get fantasy owners ready for the season and to begin making a draft strategy. Although I didn't provide you with any of my gems or sleepers in my first article, believe me there will be more to come. I will be putting up articles as often as I can and would love to hear any questions you have. Good luck studying and use your time wisely, because the NFL season will be underway before you know it!!!